sabato 25 ottobre 2008

Festival of Ideas.

Settimana di lavoro qui a Cambridge, il Computer Lab ferve sempre di eventi, impegni e seminari: il lavoro non è eccessivo ma comunque nel weekend si ferma un po' tutto e con indolente pigrizia ci si abbandona al tempo libero.


La cittadina si trasforma nel weekend: gente d'ogni età va in giro per le strade e nei parchi, spingendosi fuori città nel verde della campagna inglese, approfittando dei numerosissimi sentieri e delle piste ciclabili ben segnalate e ottimamente tenute. E così anche io, sfidando il freddo mattutino, ho scelto di fare un lungo giro in bici fino fuori città, seguendo il molle e lento fiume Cam nelle sue anse e attraversandone qualche ponte.

E anche perdere per un attimo l'orientamento può regalare qualche bella esperienza, chiedendo ad un distinto e gentilissimo signore un'indicazione e restando stupiti per la sua evidente e genuina voglia di aiutare. 

Davvero encomiabile, quasi non sembrava fosse un freddo inglese.

Ma vivere in questa piccola città, in questo microcosmo sociale che di sicuro è molto più elitario del resto del Regno Unito, è davvero bello: la qualità della vita è smisuratamente elevata, le fonti di stress ridotte al minimo, il contatto con la natura costante e duraturo, l'educazione degli abitanti eccezionale.

Ma ciò che colpisce più di ogni altra cosa è il fervido clima intellettuale che si gode: centinaia di eventi, conferenze, concerti, spettacoli, conversazioni sempre brillanti con gente molto interessante ed erudita ma allo stesso tempo affabile e per nulla schiva, opportunità innumerevoli per scatenare dibattiti e domande argute e mai capziose.

Proprio stasera ho assistito con enorme interesse ad un seminario su FaceBook e i social networks, organizzato dal Dipartimento di Antropologia Sociale dell'università nell'ambito del Festival of Ideas, che prevede moltissimi eventi del genere in questi giorni. Si è trattato di un interessante scambio di punti di vista sull'argomento, con un sociologo, una giornalista, una psicologa infantile e un professore di informatica: punti chiave del dibattito sono stati come questi mezzi cambiano la nostra vita e come le nuove generazioni riescono a adoperarli con così grande efficienza. Ed è solo un esempio per trasmettere la bellissima sensazione che si ha vivendo e lavorando qui.

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МВФ рекомендует разрешить рублю колебаться

Свободное плавание



Рубль переоценен, курс рубля завышен, и это мешает экономике бурно развиваться, говорят сторонники проведения девальвации рубля через игры с курсом. Сколько стоит рубль, волнует всех его обладателей. Главный экономист Международного валютного фонда (МВФ) Кеннет Рогофф, приехавший в пятницу в Москву, настоятельно рекомендует Центробанку отпустить рубль в свободное плавание и узнать, сколько стоит национальная валюта рубль на самом деле.



Кеннет Рогофф сказал "Финансовым Известиям", что для оптимального развития (без риска скатиться в зону дефляции) российской экономике нужна инфляция "не ниже 4-5% годовых". Перспектива долгосрочная, но, если отпустить рубль в свободное плавание, вполне достижимая, полагает главный экономист МВФ.



Выступая на семинаре в ЦБ, Рогофф рекомендовал монетарным властям "разрешить обменному курсу рубля свободнее колебаться в соответствии с колебаниями цен на товары экспорта". По его словам, из-за проводимых ЦБ интервенций сейчас рынок не чувствует этих колебаний курса рубля, и это неправильно.



Первый зампред ЦБ Олег Вьюгин согласен, что введение более плавающего курса рубля в перспективе правильно, однако "пока Россия к нему не готова". Вьюгин признает, что номинальный курс рубля завышен, и экспортеры получают "слишком большую курсовую премию из-за неравновесности рыночного курса рубля и курса ЦБ".



Считается, что, если отпустить рубль при высоких ценах на нефть, его курс может скатиться до 15-10 руб. за доллар.



"Если решиться на этот шаг, окажется, что все совсем не так ужасно", - говорит Кеннет Рогофф. Правда, при этом он отмечает, что отпустить рубль нельзя без проведения структурных реформ в экономике и адекватной бюджетной политики.



ЦБ сейчас редко прибегает к валютным интервенциям - он лишь выставляет свои котировки, указывая участникам рынка ориентир, с которым не надо спорить. Против такого "бесконтактного регулирования" курса рубля в МВФ и возражают. Но аналитики говорят, что ЦБ сейчас все делает правильно. "Какую бы политику ЦБ ни проводил, реальный эффективный курс рубля в долгосрочной перспективе не менялся бы, - считает главный экономист инвестиционной компании "Тройка-Диалог" Евгений Гавриленков. - Сейчас ведь ЦБ только сглаживает резкие кратковременные колебания курса".



finiz.ru/cfin/tmpl-art/id_art-597386



курс рубля - рубль переоценен,курс рубля завышен,МВФ - отпустить курс рубля, Сколько стоит рубль к доллару? 15-10 рублей
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